July 28, 2026
Ukraine: Long-range Campaign Fails As Russia Hits Back
My plans for today were to write a longer piece about the military situation in Ukraine, but personal maintenance issues interfered with that.
The bullet-point version:
— Two major agglomerations have moved under Russian control:
@Suriyak @Suriyakmaps – 16:16 UTC · Jul 28, 2026
The battles for Chasov Yar and Kostiantynivka ended simultaneously. 🇷🇺🇺🇦
After 9 months of fighting, the city of Kostiantynivka fell under the control of Russian army. This Russian victory has, however, overshadowed another victory of equal significance. After 27 months of fighting, the town of Chasov Yar was completely captured by Russian forces.
This battle, which appeared to be drawing to a close in August 2025, dragged on for several more months, with counter-attacks and infiltrations by Ukrainian forces in the western districts.
Whilst it seemed that the capture of Chasov Yar, situated on higher ground, would allow for a swift conquest of Kostiantynivka, situated on lower ground, it was ultimately the capture of Kostiantynivka that severed the supply lines to Chasov Yar and thus led to the withdrawal of the last Ukrainian soldiers from the town over the past few days.
[Map]
— Ukraine’s campaign against Russia in the Black Sea has left a landlocked country
Ukraine, with the help of U.S. and British intelligence, had launched a massive campaign against all Russia related shipping in the Black Sea. In a counter-campaign Russia has blocked Odessa and every other outlet to the sea that Ukraine had left. Any ship going to or from Ukraine was and will be attacked.
Ukraine is now landlocked. There will no longer be any sea borne export of Ukrainian crops or metals. Any arms import by sea has ended.
via Strana (machine translated):
One of the largest iron ore producers in Ukraine, Yuzhny GOK, is partially stopping work due to Russian attacks on civilian merchant ships.
This is stated in a statement on the official website of the company.
According to the company, in July, at least 12 civilian ships came under Russian missile strikes, which led to the complication of maritime logistics.
Due to the risks to crews, shipowners suspended voyages to Ukrainian ports. As a result, shipments of iron ore prepared for export have accumulated in the ports and warehouses of Southern GOK.
Due to the inability to ship products, the company is reducing production. …
— Ukraine’s 40-day pressure campaign against Russia has disabled Ukraine’s transport network
In mid June Ukraine had launched a 40-day campaign to “increasing pressure on Russia and pushing Moscow toward ending its war against Ukraine”. Drones were sent to hit hit Russian refineries and, more recently, civilian warehouse infrastructure.
Russia’s response included the destruction of up to a 100 of Ukrainian locomotives. Nova Posta, the official logistic provider for the Ukrainian army, has seen its warehouses destroyed. Some 200 Ukrainian gas station on major roads in eastern Ukraine were attacked and destroyed. Anyone who wants to move in eastern Ukraine has to fill the trunk with canisters as it has become impossible to find a working gas station.
After 30-days of the 40-day campaign have passed, the judgement is in(machine translation):
There was no equalization of opportunities and a turning point in the war: Russia has had and still has an advantage in fire capabilities.
This was stated in a video message by the mobilized editor-in-chief of the Censor publication Yurii Butusov.
“Russia has had such an opportunity from the first day of the war. Russia has destroyed and is destroying our infrastructure, unfortunately, on a much larger scale than we do. Previously, we did not have the opportunity to respond at all, now we do. But this does not mean that our strikes, which are very spectacular, are in themselves a sign of some kind of turning point. […],” Butusov said.
— Several large scale missile attacks have destroyed Ukraine’s long-range drone industry.
Most of the industry was settled in and around Kiev. New missile attacks are expected to arrive during the next days.
All together the recent media campaign which depicted Ukraine on the verge of gaining the upper hand against Russia was just that.
Reality painted a different picture.